Deindustrialization, Degrowth and Climate Alarmism

* Originally posted on Oct. 31, 2015. The Washington Post ran a story last October 12, 2015,  As appetite for electricity soars, the world keeps turning to coal . It is a climate alarmist story and yet the authors recognize that as of 2012, the world -- rich, middle income and poor countries combined -- was dependent on 68% fossil fuels (coal + natural gas + oil) for their electricity needs. The 21% renewables are largely "old renewables" like big hydro and geothermal. The "new renewables" like wind and solar should contribute something like 2-4% of total. In terms of total global electricity output from 1980 to 2012 (32 years), the biggest increase in GWh are (1) coal with 6.1 M and (2) natural gas with 4.1 M. Percentage wise, biggest increase were recorded by nat gas and nuke. So although it is a climate alarmism article, there is honesty in recognizing that if people want more and stable electricity, fossil fuels are inevitable and reliable energy sources. From a...

* Originally posted on Sept. 5, 2015. Global oil prices have slightly recovered in recent days, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for instance went down to as low as $38/barrel in late August, then recovered to $48+, and $46 a barrel as of this writing. Still, these are very low compared to prices 5-6 years ago. My sister's accounting and auditing office, Alas Oplas & Co. CPAs, produced its most recent monthly Economic Update, August 2015 entitled  Opportunities for Low Oil Prices . Among the data shown there are the following. Net increase in global oil supply (supply minus demand) has increased from a deficit of 0.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2013 to a surplus of 1.1 mbpd in 2015, and rose to an average of 2.9 mbpd in July this year. That is a huge number. If it is 2.9 million barrels per week, the price should not decline significantly. On the other hand, oil demand by Organization for Economic Cooperation  and  Development  (OECD) countries is declining, f...

Two chilling news from  No Tricks Zone  about environmental militance and deception  in German.The  first article  was published on May 26, 2015, and the  second  article  was posted on March 21, 2014. The first paper is an example of "regulatory capture", wind lobbyists writing the renewables cronyism law in one state in Germany. "The FDP Free Democrats accused Wenzel of having parts of the 79-page draft legislation “dictated to him by the wind industry.”   Bild quotes Free Democrat Dr. Gero Hocker, an environment expert:    "The Environment Minister must concede that the wind lobby took over the job of drafting the law. That’s an outrage!”" Good work, FDP. Fiscalize the green zealots mainly responsible for ever-rising energy prices in Germany. From the second article, FNF's website, Liberal, was also quoted saying "The proposed law by Environment Senator Joachim Lohse foresees a system of monitoring that allows for detection of vi...

* Originally posted on July 25, 2015. Last Thursday, July 23,  I attended this forum held at the Ayala Museum, Makati. Main speaker was Atty. Raphael Perpetuo "Popo" M. Lotilla, former DOE Secretary and Chairman, Center for the Advancement of Trade Integration and Facilitation (CATIF). Discussants and reactors were (1) Mr. Vicente S. Perez, Jr., former DOE Secretary, President of ALTERNERGY and Chairman of WWF-Philippines, (2) Mr. John Eric T. Francia, President & CEO of Ayala Corp. (AC) Energy Holdings, Inc., and (3) Dr. Peter Lee U,Dean, School of Economics, University of Asia and the Pacific (UAP). This photo from the UPSE  website ; from left: Perez, Lotilla, Francia, Lee U. Popo talked about the various provisions of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) law of 2001, in particular the Retail Competition and Open Access (RCOA), the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), etc. It was a full-packed room, as usual. Many part...

* Originally posted on May 31, 2015. There was a report in interaksyon.com last April 6, 2015 on   P15.5-billion coal-fired power plant in northern Negros proposed . For me, it is good news for the two Negros provinces and the Visayas grid.  When that 150 MW coal plant starts operating a few years from now, it should help expand electricity supply for Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental provinces which currently are dependent on an old geothermal plant in southern Negros and coal plants from Cebu. In the May 2010 population census nationwide, Negros Occidental including Bacolod City has 2.9 million  people while Negros Oriental including Dumaguete City has 1.3 million, or a total of 4.2 million people for Negros island. The average annual  population growth rate of the two provinces from 2000-2010   are 2.1 percent for western or Occidental Negros and around 1.3 percent for  eastern Negros. Assuming a similar population growth rate for 2010-2015, thi...

See these reports. (1) From  Bloomberg  June 21, 2014. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, boosted consumption of the fuel by 13 percent in the past four years, while use in Britain, No. 3 in the region economically, rose 22 percent, statistics from oil company BP Plc show... Germany’s emissions rose even as its production of intermittent wind and solar power climbed fivefold in the past decade.... German fossil-fuel emissions climbed 5.5 percent to 843 million tons in the four years through 2013, the BP data show. To meet its commitment, Germany would have to reduce its pollution by about 379 million tons, a further 45 percent. The BP statistics cover only fossil-fuel burning, which makes up about 88 percent of the nation’s greenhouse gas output.  (2) From  Reuters , Aug. 27, 2014: Germany will continue to need coal-fired power plants, its energy regulator said, warning that Europe's biggest economy should not rely solely on renewables or risk increasing exposure to ...

My six points outline: 1. Global energy mix 2. Generation cost, Electricity prices 3. Germany Case 4. UK Case 5. No climate basis for renewables cronyism 6. Conclusions Europe being a very modern continent, and Germany and UK being highly industrialized countries, and  yet there are stories  and reports of “EU risks blackout”, a “dark continent”, and “impossible green  dream”. IV.  UK Case Climate change (CC) is true. It happened in the past, happening now, and will  happen in the future. Global warming (GW) is true, it happened in the past (last century, Medieval warm period, Roman warm period,…), and will happen again  in the future. Global cooling is also  true, happened in the past, happening now. Because CC is natural (nature-made, not made), it is cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling), and has precedents (not “unprecedented”). Skeptics (like me) do not deny CC or GW because these are true. What we deny is that CC and GW is “man-made” or anth...