Dominance of coal power worldwide, 2015

* Originally posted on Oct. 31, 2015.

The Washington Post ran a story last October 12, 2015, As appetite for electricity soars, the world keeps turning to coal. It is a climate alarmist story and yet the authors recognize that as of 2012, the world -- rich, middle income and poor countries combined -- was dependent on 68% fossil fuels (coal + natural gas + oil) for their electricity needs. The 21% renewables are largely "old renewables" like big hydro and geothermal. The "new renewables" like wind and solar should contribute something like 2-4% of total.

In terms of total global electricity output from 1980 to 2012 (32 years), the biggest increase in GWh are (1) coal with 6.1 M and (2) natural gas with 4.1 M. Percentage wise, biggest increase were recorded by nat gas and nuke.

So although it is a climate alarmism article, there is honesty in recognizing that if people want more and stable electricity, fossil fuels are inevitable and reliable energy sources.

From a nice US Chamber of Commerce article last October 16, 2015, There Are Gigawatts of Good Reasons to Still Mine Coal, this table is lifted from the World Coal Association.

Top 10 countries -- coal fired power station build

* Globally, there are 510 coal-fired power plants under construction, with a further 1,874 planned, a total of 2,384.
* China, India, Indonesia dominate making up 71% of the total
* Philippines, Vietnam, Turkey and Pakistan bring up the total up to 81% 
* Europe and America play a very small role.

source: World Coal Association

It is good that despite heavy lobbying by the "kill coal, save the planet" movement led by Greenpeace, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Oxfam, Sierra Club and other big environmental groups, with indirect (and sometimes direct) blessings and funding of the UN, ADB, WB, etc., the three big ASEAN countries Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam realize that it is not possible for them to grow fast if they will shun cheaper and stable energy sources like coal.

In the US, despite echo-pronouncements by the Obama administration, the biggest economy in the world is 70% dependent on coal and natural gas (35% each) for its electricity needs as of July 2015. This data is from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), October 07, 2015.

In the Philippines, see low capacity factor of solar wind.

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Meanwhile this was published by BWorld under the Feedback section:

December 17, 2015

Dear Mr. Oplas,

I liked your article in today’s paper about the problems with solar power.

Ironically the Star published also today an article about the solar plant at SM North EDSA which you mentioned in your article. It states in there that the 1.5 MW solar plant will provide enough power to “energize 1000 households” . That is a gross exaggeration! At a capacity factor of 15% which reflects the Philippine true weather conditions and given an average power consumption of 2560 Kwh per year for a typical Philippine household this plant would provide at best power for only 32 households if it could supply baseload.

In don’t understand the hype and misleading reports about the benefits of solar. It may be a different story if you have desert climate conditions like in Southern California or the Middle East where solar under an all-year-round clear sky can reach capacity factors of 25% and merchant solar plants can feed their intermittent supply to a large grid. None of these conditions exist here in the Philippines.

You mentioned in your article the often very short interruptions which occur within minutes. The industry calls that “Power-Swings” . The other day a heard a speaker at a congress who reported that unless one has huge warehouse-like battery storage facility, which can buffer these power swings, our fairly small capacity grids cannot absorb these swings and will automatically shut down. Very scary.

As a German Citizen I am of course proud of the accomplishment we have achieved in terms of RE. In the enclosed presentation which I gave at a Energy Forum you can see that the total power generated from RE sources was 152 GWh in 2013. That is double the power output of the entire Philippine in that same year!

But solar is playing only a limited role in Germany. Aside from wind it is biomass which is the backbone of German RE sources. A total of 7.800 small biogas plants all over the country with a total capacity 3800 MW are generating 29 GWh per year while the Philippines power output as a total is 74 GWh per year. According to a study from the USAid the Philippines have organic feedstock potential for a total of biomass/biogas output of 4,450 MW! That is the equivalent of 10 coal power plants!

Anyway I believe that the solar  industry will soon learn a hard lesson and will realize that its application on an island nation like the Philippines will be limited.

Best regards.

Ditmar Gorges